Economic Forecast

August 21, 2023 - U.S Home Prices and Housing Affordability in 2023

U.S. Home Prices 2023

Hello there, I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. Today we are going to look at home prices and housing affordability. To do this I will be looking at the second quarter sales price data from ATTOM Data Solutions and we will also look at the just released National Association of Home Builders Housing Opportunity Index for the second quarter.

Are home prices dropping?

A map of the United States showing the year-over-year change in median sales price from Q2 2022 to 2023. Iowa had the largest positive change at 10.4%, while New York state had the greatest decline at -8.1%.


Starting with the year-over-year change in sale prices at the state level, there aren’t any great surprises. For the past several months I’ve been saying that as the Western U.S. saw the greatest price growth during the pandemic, so it’s not surprising to see most states sale prices in the quarter below the level seen a year ago. But it was pleasing to see that sale prices in 36 states either matched the level seen a year ago or were higher, and in some instances quite significantly so.

U.S. Home Sale Prices 2023 By State

A map of the United States showing the percentage change of home sales prices from their 2022 peak. 33 states are at or above their peak last year, but most of the Western states have yet to recover. Louisiana, Hawaii, and New York are lagging the most.


And when we compare second quarter sale prices to their 2022 peaks, 33 states are at or above the highs seen last year, but most of the Western States have yet to fully recover. In the South, Louisiana is still lagging by a good amount, as is New York State on the East Coast.

But as you are all very aware, all markets are different. I thought it would be interesting to dig a little deeper into the data to see which metro markets have seen significant gains over the past 12 months. It’s going to be interesting specifically because of the fact that mortgage rates have risen so much.

Metro Areas: Home Sale Prices 2023

A map of the United States showing specific metro areas throughout the Eastern U.S. that are above their 2022 peak in terms of home sale prices. Macon, GA is up 13.4%, while Roanoke is up 9.1%.


These are markets where sale prices are far above their 2022 peak sale prices. Now I must add that I only looked at markets where more than 1,000 transactions occurred in the last quarter, which takes out some of the volatility. Notably, even though the state of Virginia’s home prices in the quarter were flat when compared to their 2022 peak, the Roanoke market was up by over 9%. And in Pennsylvania, where state prices were only 1.2% above their 2022 peak, Reading is up by 7.6% and York by 7.4%. And in Georgia, where state sale prices were up a modest 1.6%, homes in Macon have leapt by over 13% and prices are up by 6.9% in Savannah.


A map of the United States showing specific metro areas throughout the country that are below their 2022 peak in terms of home sale prices. California has three metro areas highlighted, the lowest of which is San Francisco at -10.5%. Austin, TX is at -10.9% and Shreveport, LA is at -17.8%.


But, on the other end of the spectrum, there are markets which are underperforming their respective states and, unsurprisingly, California tops the list with three of their metros seeing prices significantly below that of the state as a whole. In other parts of the country, several metro areas which were relatively affordable before the pandemic saw an influx of remote workers and this led prices to skyrocket, and these will take some time to recover. This is particularly true in the Austin and Boise market areas.

I would add that, of the counties across the country where there were more than 1,000 transactions in the second quarter, half have met or exceeded their prior peak and—of the half where sale prices were still lower—the average shortfall is only around 4% and there are just seven counties in the country where sale prices are down by more than 10% from their 2022 peaks.

Now, what I see in the data is that the U.S. housing market, although certainly not fully healed, is headed in the right direction even when faced with mortgage rates that remain remarkably high. So, with sale prices recovering and still faced with stubbornly high financing costs, what does affordability look like?

U.S. Housing Affordability 2023

Well, according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB), of the 241 metros that they track, just 40.5% of sales in the second quarter were affordable to households making the area’s median income—that’s the second lowest share of sales seen since they started generating this dataset a decade ago. Now, their data does go back to 2004, but the interest rate series that they used to use was discontinued, so it’s not accurate to compare their data today with anything before 2012.

Most Affordable U.S. Housing Markets

A map of the United States showing the most affordable housing markets according to Q2 2023 data. All markets are on the eastern side of the country. Cumberland, MD has the highest affordability rate at 93.5%, followed by Elmira, NY at 92.8%.


These were the most affordable markets in the second quarter and their locations should not be of any great surprise. Average sale prices in these markets were measured around $203,000—that’s just marginally above 50% of the national sale price in the quarter, which was $402,600.

Least Affordable U.S. Housing Markets

A map of California showing some of the least affordable housing markets in the United States. Los Angeles is the least affordable at 4.1%, followed by Anaheim at 5.7% and Napa at 6.6%.


And unfortunately this should not surprise you either. On the other end of the spectrum, the top-10 least affordable housing markets were all in California, but it gets worse than that. The top 15 least affordable markets again, all in California, and 19 out of the top 25 were in the Golden State!

As far as I can see, the ownership housing market is still showing remarkable resiliency, especially given that mortgage rates have more than doubled from their lows and they’ve risen from 4.8% at the start of the second quarter of last year to 7% at the end of the second quarter of 2023.

Now, I still expect to see rates starting to slowly move lower as we go through the second half of the year. This will help with prices and, to a degree, affordability, but until we see a significant increase in the number of homes listed for sale, the market is going to remain unbalanced.

As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts on this subject so feel free to leave your comments below. Until next month, stay safe out there and I’ll see you soon. Bye now.

Looking for an economic update on the Real Estate Market each month? This page provides monthly videos from Matthew Gardner (Windermere's Chief Economist) about all his predictions for what's ahead in this crazy housing market. You will also find highlights from the videos if you do not have time to watch!

June 26, 2023 – Mid Year Update!

Mid Year Update! Curious about mortgage rates? In his latest “Monday with Matthew” video, Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist at Windermere Real Estate, hosts a master class, providing a brief history and analysis of mortgage rates, while also giving his forecast for the future.
Read More

 Will Rising Foreclosures Impact the Housing Market?

 Will Rising Foreclosures Impact the Housing Market? How will rising foreclosures impact the U.S. housing market? To give his answer, Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner sheds light on the latest foreclosure data and shows how prepared home buyers are to manage their mortgage debt today compared to the 2000s. Rising U.S. Foreclosures The market has […]
Read More

Renting vs. Buying a Home: The Financial Benefits of Homeownership

Economic Forecast Renting vs. Buying a Home: The Financial Benefits of Homeownership Renting vs. Buying a Home One of my followers asked me about some of the financial benefits of owning your home as opposed to renting. I find this topic interesting as there really is a “laundry list” of reasons that, from a financial […]
Read More

Why This Market Won’t Be Like 2008

  Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to the first episode of “Monday with Matthew” for 2023. As has become tradition, this first episode of the year will be dedicated to my real estate forecast for the U.S. housing market, so let’s get straight to it. 2023 Real Estate Forecast Existing […]
Read More

Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023

Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023
Read More

Are we in a housing recession?

Are we in a housing recession?   Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. A little while ago, a housing analyst was being interviewed about the current state of the residential market and they suggested that the country is in a “housing recession.” Well, needless to say, this […]
Read More

The Continued Decline of the Housing Market Index

The Continued Decline of the Housing Market Index “Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. Today we are going to take a look at the new home market where headwinds are certainly growing. And the reason this particular subject piqued my interest was that the National Association of […]
Read More

The Landscape for Mortgage Rates and Inflation in 2022

This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.    “Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to this month’s episode […]
Read More

The Growing Housing Affordability Problem

“Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. If you’ve listened to me at all over the past several years, you’ll know that I am pretty passionate about one subject: housing affordability. And, given the significant price growth that we’ve seen over the past decade, […]
Read More

The Current State of the Housing Market

The Current State of the Housing Market “Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner, and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. With home prices continuing to defy gravity, mortgage rates spiking, the Fed raising interest rates significantly, a yield curve that is just keeping its nose above water, and some becoming […]
Read More

Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrencies in Real Estate

The focus of this month’s Mondays with Matthew is how blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies may impact both Buyers and Sellers in the future. Milo claims to offer the worlds fist crypto mortgage. It allows borrowers to use bitcoin, but only bitcoin right now, as collateral for a 30-year mortgage. Windermere is not endorsing the milo […]
Read More

The Impact of Rising Mortgage Rates

The latest episode of Monday’s with Matthew addresses the spike in mortgage rates and if there will be any impacts to the housing market following Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. Here is a chart how rates have moved over the past two years. Rates were falling in early 2020, they spiked when COVID-19 was announced, […]
Read More

Housing & Economic Forecast for 2022

Housing & Economic Forecast for 2022 Below is Gardner’s forecast for economic growth through the end of 2022. The impacts of Covid-19 are going to continue to act as a drag on virus sensitive consumer services next year and ongoing supply chain issues will also delay inventory restocking. Both of these have a depressing effect […]
Read More

A Master Class In Mortgage Rates

This months Monday’s with Matthew focuses on mortgage rates and what we can expect for the future. Gardner gives a crash course on how mortgage rates are set. There are many factors that impact the rate a homebuyer will get, which include credit scores and loan to value ratios, but the base rate is set […]
Read More

How Do Buyers & Sellers Feel About the Housing Market?

  This months Monday’s with Matthew focuses on the latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index Survey. This is a survey that focuses primarily on housing and it shows the responses of 1,000 consumers across the country. Gardner shares data about about the housing market regarding buying, selling, and if home prices will go up or down […]
Read More

Housing and Economic Update

  Gardner jumps right into the data releases that came out in August and starts with the new housing permits and starts. New home permits (single family permits) fell by 17% in July and they have been heading backwards since March. Although we have seen a pull back over the past few months the trend […]
Read More

Update on Homes in Forbearance

  This was a great month to look at the data for the number of homes in forbearance as the program stopped taking new applications at the end of June. The situation today is a vast improvement from where we were last may. More than 4.76 homes were in the program last May, but by […]
Read More

Housing Affordability Declines as Prices Continue to Rise and Incomes Fall

By: Michael Hyman, A RESEARCH DATA SPECIALIST FOR THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. At the national level, housing affordability declined in April compared to a year ago, according to NAR’s Housing Affordability Index. Affordability declined in April compared to March as the median family incomes declined by 1.0% while the monthly mortgage payment increased 16.1%. The […]
Read More

Is a Housing Bubble on the Horizon?

  Today’s Monday’s with Matthew looks a bit different. While this 30 minute video is longer than the others, it is full of great information regarding the history on the housing crash in 2007 and whether or not we are in the midst of a housing bubble.
Read More

Inventory, Mortgage Rates, and New Construction

Matthew Gardner’s latest video on the housing market is full of important information regarding inventory, mortgage rates, future predictions, and new home builds. There continues to be an extremely limited amount of inventory, but Gardner is still expecting that the number of home sales will increase by more than 11% compared to last year. With […]
Read More

Home Ownership Rates

Matthew begins with information on the current home ownership rates and dives into the data regarding home buying and the younger generation. The ownership rate for millennials is increasing and the current rate of 38.5% is a share not seen since back in 2011. Gardner believes this number will continue to rise over the next […]
Read More

Housing & Economic Update

Matthew came out with his first video for 2021 and it’s full of great information! If you don’t have time to watch the full video we have provided some highlights below. Starting with The National Association of Home Builders report we can see that the index has slipped from 86 to 83, but builder’s still […]
Read More

The 2021 Housing Forecast

This past year mortgage rates have broken record lows, and we have watched them drop week after week. Matthew Gardner predicts that rates will most likely bottom out in the current quarter but he doesn’t see mortgage rates increasing significantly next year. Regarding existing home sales, Matthew Gardner forecasts that sales should be up by […]
Read More

The Latest US Home Sales Data 

Existing home sales rose for the 5th consecutive month, and sales are 26.6% higher compared to a year ago. As sales rose in October, so did prices. The median home price in October was up by 15.5% compared to a year ago, and we haven’t seen that pace of price growth since 2006. Mortgage rates […]
Read More

Housing Affordability Index

Quick Update from Matthew Gardner: How Will Election Results Impact the Housing Market? Michael Hyman is the National Association of Realtor’s Research Data Specialist. Below is his most recent article from November 13, 2020, discussing the housing affordability index, median family income, and mortgage rates. “At the national level, housing affordability declined in September 2020 […]
Read More

Analyzing the US Job Market

Jobs continue to return, but the pace has slowed significantly. The country added 638,000 jobs in October, which was surprisingly strong due to the current rate of COVID-19 cases. It’s good to see the unemployment rate drop, but the amount of people who have been unemployed for more than six months has increased by 1.2 […]
Read More

The Latest Housing Information

  At the end of Matthew Gardner’s video he states that the housing market continues to outperform, but the pace of price growth is not sustainable and while it has to start tapering off at some point it isn’t quite there yet. Check out the graphs below or watch his video to see what was […]
Read More

Interest Rates and Housing Affordability

What this means in layman’s terms, is the low interest rates have fueled the housing market. This is causing home values to go up faster than interest rates are dropping. As a result we could find many buyers getting priced out of the market. When buyers exit a sellers market, supply and demand is affected. […]
Read More
realtor headshot

I hope you enjoy our economic update, if you have any questions regarding the housing market or would just like to chat please feel free to reach out to me here.

Loading Contact Me...